I have to tell you that I'm just about as sick of watching Kevin Garnett getting the Eli Manning/Sidney Crosby treatment after watching the Celtics in their past two series.  Don't get me wrong, he's a great guy.  He's the epitome of unselfish.  He's everything that you have to like about a basketball player.  The problem is that there are at least 10 pro basketball players who deserve the attention more than he does.  He's getting a pass (or making a pass in the 4th quarter) because he played on a crappy team for years and arrived in basketball-rich Boston, whose expectation levels for sports teams are at an all-time high. 

But rather than beat that horse dead let's take a look at a series where Boston is actually the favorite and I have them losing in 6, when my gut tells me that they'll lose in 5.

Let's start with the Boston offense.  First let's assume the point runs through Rajon Rondo.  Rondo has the heart of a champion and has performed well above expectations.  However, expecting him to turn the corner on either Chauncey or Rip is a big task.  I don't think it's going to happen.  Add the championship experience to the equation and I'll go on record as saying that Boston is outclassed at the position.  Not that this is ground-breaking material, but when your point guard is going to be shutdown then you're going to have to turn to somebody else to run the offense.

So let's then assume that Boston decides to run the point through Paul Pierce.  First off, that's a bad idea.  Pierce was 1/2 of the single-most frustrating basketball watching experience when him and Antoine "Dough-Boy" Walker battled to see who could take the worst shots in a game.  Ironically, the same thing that sunk the Celtics before the arrival of the other "big 2" is exactly what Doc Rivers asked him to do in Game 7.  And for all of his shortcomings, Pierce made a name for himself in that game.  Even more impressive was that Pierce got his points many times against Lebron, who in theory should be able to shut Pierce down.  What will get lost in the hype is that Pierce was given an overwhelming green light, not necessarily because he was "the man", but because he was the only one who could get his own shot.  He ended up making a lot of tough shots and while Lebron drew the assignment, he won't get that favorable treatment against the Pistons.  Remember, even though Lebron was covering him much of the time Lebron had to expend too much energy on the offensive end of the court dribbling around triple-teams and the like.  And when Lebron wasn't covering him he had guys like Wally and Pavlovic covering him, neither of which pose the challenge he will face against Detroit. 

Enter the Prince.

He will shut down Paul Pierce in every game during the series.  Pierce doesn't have the first step, the lift, the shot, or the post-game to get good shots off.  And you can get your popcorn out because it is nearly a foregone conclusion that Boston will be forced to run the offense through Pierce until it is clear he can't score on Prince.  You can pretty much take the under on Pierce's point totals all series long and make a major profit, which is what I'll be doing.  So when Rondo can't turn a corner and Pierce can't so much as put the ball down, what then?

What about Garnett?  What's he going to do?  In the post he can elevate above most, but not against Rasheed.  He'll have his hands full whether it's Rasheed, McDyess, and heck even Maxiell could cover him.  The reason is simple, he doesn't have an "attack" move going to the basket.  Since all you have to do is let the guy fade away it really doesn't matter who covers the guy as long as they don't let him get to the rim, which he won't.  And while KG can hit a jumper, and a fadeaway for that matter, it's a lot different when you have a 7 footer in Rasheed putting a hand up in your face.  With Pierce and Rondo destined to be shutdown, Boston's best chance to win, and ironically what will be the defining moment in KG's career, will be KG's ability to take the ball in either the block or high post and drive to the hoop.  If he can put the ball on the ground for more than 2 dribbles and get an angle on Rasheed, and get him into foul trouble, he can break the interior defense down.  From the inside out he can create tentative strategies from the Pistons, which will open the game up for spot up shooters like Ray "the invisible man" Allen and James Posey (who will play an important defensive role on Teyshaun).  And if Detroit chooses to defend KG with Prince (who can cover KG) or a guy like Maxiell then KG will be forced to elevate, which plays into Detroit's game plan.  That is, not letting him get to the rim.  And if Detroit puts Prince on him KG won't be able to simply elevate over him, he'll get his shot blocked.  In other words, if Detroit finds that they can cover Pierce with Maxiell or even a guy like Stuckey (or heck, even a guy like McDyess, and all of these are possibilities), then Boston is going to have their 2 leading scorers neutralized.

As for the other part of the "Big 3", Ray Allen is officially done as a driving threat.  He has no lift and I wouldn't be surprised if he weren't injured.  He didn't look this slow last year in Seattle.

So in summary, we haven't even discussed Detroit's offense versus Boston's defense and I'll be laying heavy on Detroit. 

Boston's best bet is to use players like Leon Powe to get to the rim against whoever the defensive weakness on the floor will be.  And as bad as Sam Cassell has played he might just be able to body up Billups better than Rondo, as scary as that sounds for Boston fans.  Realistically, Boston's best (and only) bet is to take all of their offensive low-post players and run the offense nearly entirely through them.  That means Garnett, Powe, Perkins, (gulp) Big Baby, and (unfortunately) Cassell need to be fed the ball on the block.  The entry pass needs to come from Pierce as much as possible, with other dribble-drive threats like Rondo, and um...Rondo spaced on that the same side of the court.  The spot up shooters in Posey, House, Cassell, and Rondo need to flank the weakside of the play.  The ball gets entered and the first priority needs to be to draw contact and fouls.  If they get to the line and can put some of the key defenders into foul trouble like Prince (who won't easily get into foul trouble), Sheed (who will), and the other core guys like Billups and Rip....they will have a chance to make things happen.  Once the ball gets entered the first kickout pass goes to somebody who can take it to the rim and now because of the help defense they will be able to get the corner that they couldn't get in a one-on-one or triple-threat position.  If there is too much help the ball can be swung to players whose primary strength is to spot up.  If those shots aren't open they can hit the weakside block where a player like KG or Perkins will have been able to establish deep position and have a great opportunity for a successful play. 

If they don't take this approach, and say use a high pick and roll or try to isolate people with dribble-drive penetration they will be beaten to spots on the court.  More times than not the defense will not have to shift and help.  Worst for Boston, the defense will likely have the advantage because of the superior skills and foot-speed at all positions on the court.  If they can successfully enter the ball into the post it will do a couple of things.  First, it will loosen the defense for the spot up shooters.  Second, if they are successful the low-block help will open opportunities for offensive rebounds.  But most importantly, they will neutralize the fact that they don't have the foot-speed with Pierce to beat Prince, and with Garnett the low-post game to beat Sheed.  The cherry on top will be the aggressive mindset that the team gets into by attacking the basket.  If they have any success at all inside and their spotup shooters like Allen can get on a roll they have a shot.

Offensively, Detroit has too many weapons for Boston to keep up with.  Chauncey, Rip, Prince, and Sheed are enough for any team to handle.   Normally, Boston's defense can handle just about anybody in the league.  The turning point in this discussion though is that when Boston stalls out offensively Detroit will have the momentum go for the jugular.  And unlike Boston just about everybody on the roster for Detroit can get their own shot.  I'll give Rondo credit for being able to stop the ball, but Billups will just post him up drawing double teams.  Rondo will be better suited on Rip but that leaves Chauncy free to roam.  Boston will be best served to cover Billups with Posey, but Posey would also be better suited to cover the Prince.  Pierce will get the assignment on Prince though and will get frustrated when Prince elevates over him with runners in the lane.  Powe would also be a good cover on Prince because of his strength and athleticism.  Garnett will obviously do as good a job on Rasheed as anybody in the league.  However, you can see that Boston is going to be a player or two short at any given position.

Boston is good defensively but Doc Rivers couldn't even devise a way to handle a 1-man team in Cleveland, what are they going to do against a team with multiple options on the floor?

What the hell, I'm going to go for the jugular too.  I'm licking my chops.  I'm going Detroit in 5, put it in the books.