AFTER THE ALL-STAR BREAK: 5 TRENDS TO WATCH

We here at PBS hopes that Dwight Howard's Superman dunk doesn't result in an increased playtime for Soulja Boy's Crank Dat because I might just have to go out to the shed and shoot myself (and thus no more stellar NBA analysis for yooooooouuuuuu).

So as we head into the what is arguably the most exciting Western Conference landscape...ever....we take the time to point out what we believe are the 5 trends to watch going into the playoffs.

1.  THE SAN ANTONIO SPURS WILL LOSE ONLY 5 OF THEIR REMAINING GAMES

Screw the Full Tilt Poker lineup, the San Antonio Spurs are the masters of deception.  How many prognosticators and pundits do you hear thumping the drums for Drowsy Duncan and his band of sneaky basketball artists.  It seems they always get thrown in there as the "well you can't forget about the world champions" comment, a stark cry from the type of respect given to the New England Patriots who won a similar number of championships in a similar amount of time.  Disecting the reasons the Spurs don't get the respect they deserve is part the lack of a flamboyant superstar, part the emergence of the entire Western Conference, but also their 14-12 record on the road where they typically dominate.  They've been resting injured players and conserving their energy knowing that it doesn't matter where you start but where you finish.

2.  THE NBA BREAKS RECORDS FOR TELEVISION RATINGS

The days when people bemoaned the NBA's spoiled superstars and lazy night-in and night-out performances are over.  Just to survive to make the playoffs in the West it looks like 52-53 wins is about the mark.  That means that there are going to be potentially (2) 50+ win teams that don't make the playoffs.  With the current #1 seed New Orleans Hornets separated from the current #8 seed Denver Nuggets by only 4.5 games it is going to be a dogfight each and every night (oh and by the way Ron Artest is rumored to be going to the Nuggets....scary for a number of reasons).  And this level of competition in the West means that teams from the East who would normally be fishin' with Chuck, Kenny, and Ernie are still in the hunt despite their sub-par records.  Throw in the mix that it is arguable that the Celtics and/or Pistons are constantly mentioned as the favorites we may just have a college-style "anybody can win it" feel.  During a time when people are tired of baseball's mismanagement and the possibility in the NFL that the (puke) best team of all-time was possibly cheating when they did it, the NBA is seen by America as handling the fallout of Hurricane Katrina, possibly going global, with young stars like Dwight Howard and Chris Paul doing and saying the right things in a playoff chase for the ages.

3.  LEBRON JAMES WILLS HIS TEAM INTO TITLE CONTENTION

I have to admit, I have been a LeBron James detractor at times.  Well, better put, I've been a Cleveland Cavaliers and Mike Brown detractor but I haven't been so quick to jump on the Bron-Bron Bandwagon.  I could go on and on forever about the Cavaliers neglecting to bring in shooters and Mike Brown's horrendous Finals coaching that allowed a combination of shorter defenders to defend LeBron when he could have just gone to the post and scored every time.  Bruce Bowen....dunked over on the blocks.  Ginobli....would have fallen to the ground 50 times.  Robert Horry....Fabricio....right.  Even Duncan would have had his hands full down there.  Alas, I regress....

So I actually had the Cavs on my "teams to fade" list for all you for-amusement-only prognosticators.  But LeBron did something this year that earned a ton of my respect—he developed his jumpshot.  Shooting is one of those things that often times you either have or you don't have, and now LeBron has it.  This is all despite the type of offseason (see the Espy's) that often results in a loss of focus the following year.  With his new jumpshot and the emergence of Daniel "Everyone on the Air needs to say Boobie because it was a bad word in Kindergarden" Gibson you can't just throw a saggy zone up and watch out for falling bricks.  After starting 2007 going 14-17, the Cavs have roared back going 15-6 so far in 2008 with key wins against Boston, at the Lakers, at San Antonio, and at Dallas.  In fact, most of their losses happened without LeBron in the lineup.  If they do make the NBA finals, their biggest weakness will be Mike Brown and not the talent on their roster.

4.  BARON DAVIS FINISHES IN THE TOP 5 OF NBA MVP VOTING

Baron Davis not making the All Star team was a travesty (among all guards he is 6th in scoring at 21.7ppg, 11th in rebounds at 4.8rpg, 7th in assistsss at 8.1apg, 5th in minutes at 39.6mpg, 2nd in steals at 2.5spg and most importantly without missing any games due to injury).  With the Warriors currently sitting in the 7th spot and being a strong second-half team (the Warriors are 87-62-3 against the spread over the past 5 years in the second half), B-Diddy's personal stats should continue to flourish but most importantly the wins should keep piling up. 

And don't think that getting the shaft on the All Star decision by his former team's coach Byron Scott isn't going to motivate him.

When the Warriors make their push it's going to be Baron's face on the cover.  He is the emotional leader of a club that aside from Andres Beidrins has 5 players on the court most times that can both take it to the rack and bury the 3.  Leading the charge is a guy in Baron Davis that has that Sportscenter quality.  Whether it's the step-back jump shots with time winding down on the clock, drives to the hoop with defenders bouncing off of him, or spectacular dunks like the one he laid on AK-47 in last year's playoffs.....he will be the guy that sportswriters and fans alike feel guilty for what happened to him this February.

5.  CHANGING OF THE GUARD

With the barrage of trades and the overall improvement in the league (each team seems like an All Star team these days....particularly in the West), it's overgeneralizing to say that we're seeing a change of guard but there are some old faces in some strange places, in the crosshairs for not getting it done.  Shaq goes out West in one of the most controversial trades in recent memory and in a built-for-TV matchup faces Kobe Bryant who now has a supporting cast.  Jason Kidd joins a team that Pro Basketball Scoop has railed against recently due to its lack of toughness and identity, who lost arguably their best player in Devin Harris.  Dirk Nowitzki is specifically on our radar.  Gilbert Arenas (returning to a team that will ask him to actually play defense) and Dwayne Wade (fresh off his 5 missed layups in the All Star skills competition) look like afterthoughts when just last year they were the toast of the town.  Vince Carter looks more like Jay-Z than a basketball player for New Jersey.  Mike Bibby gets traded as soon as he steps back on the court and nobody in Sacramento cares (they're actually happy).

So what's the story here?  Players get older every year.  But I have a feeling that this year it will feel like the former "Kings of the NBA" are being officially laid to rest.

Shaq is going to struggle during times he needs to make critical shots when in 1-on-1 situations.  He simply isn't quick or skilled enough anymore to beat anyone, but he will get open dunks when Nash sets him up.  He won't be the savior that Phoenix fans are hoping justifies the departure of The Matrix, and the acquisition of Shaq will be roundly criticized when they don't win the title. 

Jason Kidd is going to play well, but his team is going to lack the firepower to get farther than the 2nd round of the playoffs (if they make it that far).  Dirk will take most of the criticism for their struggles while Kidd will get a pass (because he'll be making the right passes), but by and large folks will put a fork in both of their futures...and blame Cuban for mortgaging the future on the wrong guys. 

Wade will only hit the radar as Chuck's sidekick, bringing a harsh spotlight to his mailing it in this year.  Atlanta fans will find out why the Kings were willing to part with malcontent Bibby for a box of jelly-filled donuts with expiring contracts....he simply can't jump, drive, or pass anymore.  Vince Carter has possibly the most embarrasing contract in the league and don't expect the fans in New Jersey to put up with a guy who heaves the rock 20+ times per game and comes away with less than 20 points more times than not....and they'll be forced to keep him or buy him out sending the Nets into salary cap hell.  And it's entirely possible that adding Arenas to the lineup will actually make Washington worse as a round "I guy" peg being put in a square "gritty defense" hole. 

Your new NBA consists of young guys like Lebron James, Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Chris Bosh, Andrew Bynum, Monte Ellis, Carlos Boozer, and Brandon Roy.  They are exceeding expectations and leading their teams ahead of the old stars with the exception of Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, Tim Duncan, Allen Iverson, Tracy McGrady/Yao Ming, Kevin Garnett, and the Detroit Gang who are still getting it done (I'm sure I'm missing some folks...save your emails).  If San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix, Los Angeles, Boston, or Detroit does not win the title, then a new NBA megastar from the ranks of the young will be born.  While those teams are favored to win, they by no means are a lock with New Orleans, Utah, Denver, Golden State, Houston, Cleveland, and Orlando there to knock any of them off. 

One way or another you're going to see a lot of recent MVP's, former finals MVP's, and recent MVP candidates struggling with unheralded, budding superstars getting it done when it matters most.  You won't know why you feel the way that you do but it will certainly seem like a brand new NBA unfolding in front of you.  Put a reminder for after the season to check back with this article, and I'm confident that 4 out of 5 of these scenarios will have played themselves out.

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