WESTERN CONFERENCE TRADES - AFTER THE DUST SETTLES
Posted by Bruski at 2/9/2008 4:03 PM and is filed under Los Angeles Lakers,San Antonio Spurs,Phoenix Suns,Dallas Mavericks,Golden State Warriors 
Just when you think you've narrowed it down to about 9 or 10 teams with a legitimate shot to make some noise in the Western Conference playoffs, a Cold War style arms race changes everything.
The Winners
Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State Warriors
The Losers
Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs
_________________
So the big deal of the day didn't involve one of the NBA's top 50 players of all time. It involved a young upstart, a Spaniard, and a villain. That's right, the combo of Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, and Kobe Bryant made headlines when the Lakers sent chumpy Kwame Brown and a box of donuts over to the Memphis Grizzlies for the disgruntled Gasol. This gives them a starting front line with a 3 legitimate bigs rivaling any team in the league. In fact, if the Lakers choose to big they can start any of their guards alongside Kobe and still keep up with any team in the league no matter how small they go. This moves the Lakers into immediate contention for the title, particularly with the old "big 3" of Dallas, Phoenix, and San Antonio struggling to maintain relevance with aging, underperforming lineups.
The Warriors are winners only because their deal didn't cost them anything to make. If Webber can give them anything it will be a plus. He looks particularly good in the high post against zone defenses.
As for the old "big 3", they are the losers of this arms race. Phoenix adds Shaq and throws a stick of dynamite into the furnace. The Big Aristotle is a bigger distraction than impact player on the court these days. People are going to question this trade all the way to the point that it is undeniably positive and unlike the Warriors, Phoenix DID have to give up something in the form of The Matrix. Shaq is going to have to train like he's fighting a prize-fight to lose the weight and gain the strength that made him what he was. Without the ability to spin, drop-step, and take one-dribbles into the lane he is virtually guardable by anybody 225 pounds or greater. So the Suns are going to have to learn to accommodate a struggling player that just takes up space. Nash will help him get some easy buckets, but not the type of buckets that compliment any other players (i.e. allow other players greater space in future possessions). All the while, teams will draw Shaq out of the middle on D and quicker players like Tim Duncan, Tyson Chandler, any 5 that Golden State plays, Mehmet Okur, Marcus Camby, etc. will simply shoot 18 footers or even dart around him for easy opportunities. I think this trade works IF Shaq gets into shape AND I think it works next year not this year when they have time to work out the kinks. For a team that is aging and looking for a championship NOW this deal hinges on Shaq's work ethic and ability to work out through injury, making it a bad deal.
San Antonio and Dallas lose by virtue of everybody else improving and them staying with the old recipe. Dallas had an opportunity to bring in Jason Kidd, but couldn't get it done. Their sticking point has been how good they believe Devon Harris is, and he is that good. However, players like Devon Harris come along more often than the Jason Kidd's of the world. Dallas' offense, even when it looks productive, looks like its struggling to maintain its effectiveness through Nowitski. Nowitski just looks slow and unskilled now that teams know how to get up on him and not let him put the ball on the ground. Jason Kidd would be able to get him the ball in places on the court that allow him to focus on being a pure shooter, his true strength. San Antonio is simply holding serve for the playoffs, knowing that what has won them 4 championships is likely as good as anything else out there, so why mess with it?
All of this shapes up to make an NCAA tournament style Western Conference playoffs. 1 can beat 8, with any variation in between. As always, it will come down to matchups. If I was a betting man (and I am) I would take the bottom 4-10 teams and bet them to win the West knowing one of them will likely hit with great odds.
The Winners
Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State Warriors
The Losers
Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs
_________________
So the big deal of the day didn't involve one of the NBA's top 50 players of all time. It involved a young upstart, a Spaniard, and a villain. That's right, the combo of Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, and Kobe Bryant made headlines when the Lakers sent chumpy Kwame Brown and a box of donuts over to the Memphis Grizzlies for the disgruntled Gasol. This gives them a starting front line with a 3 legitimate bigs rivaling any team in the league. In fact, if the Lakers choose to big they can start any of their guards alongside Kobe and still keep up with any team in the league no matter how small they go. This moves the Lakers into immediate contention for the title, particularly with the old "big 3" of Dallas, Phoenix, and San Antonio struggling to maintain relevance with aging, underperforming lineups.
The Warriors are winners only because their deal didn't cost them anything to make. If Webber can give them anything it will be a plus. He looks particularly good in the high post against zone defenses.
As for the old "big 3", they are the losers of this arms race. Phoenix adds Shaq and throws a stick of dynamite into the furnace. The Big Aristotle is a bigger distraction than impact player on the court these days. People are going to question this trade all the way to the point that it is undeniably positive and unlike the Warriors, Phoenix DID have to give up something in the form of The Matrix. Shaq is going to have to train like he's fighting a prize-fight to lose the weight and gain the strength that made him what he was. Without the ability to spin, drop-step, and take one-dribbles into the lane he is virtually guardable by anybody 225 pounds or greater. So the Suns are going to have to learn to accommodate a struggling player that just takes up space. Nash will help him get some easy buckets, but not the type of buckets that compliment any other players (i.e. allow other players greater space in future possessions). All the while, teams will draw Shaq out of the middle on D and quicker players like Tim Duncan, Tyson Chandler, any 5 that Golden State plays, Mehmet Okur, Marcus Camby, etc. will simply shoot 18 footers or even dart around him for easy opportunities. I think this trade works IF Shaq gets into shape AND I think it works next year not this year when they have time to work out the kinks. For a team that is aging and looking for a championship NOW this deal hinges on Shaq's work ethic and ability to work out through injury, making it a bad deal.
San Antonio and Dallas lose by virtue of everybody else improving and them staying with the old recipe. Dallas had an opportunity to bring in Jason Kidd, but couldn't get it done. Their sticking point has been how good they believe Devon Harris is, and he is that good. However, players like Devon Harris come along more often than the Jason Kidd's of the world. Dallas' offense, even when it looks productive, looks like its struggling to maintain its effectiveness through Nowitski. Nowitski just looks slow and unskilled now that teams know how to get up on him and not let him put the ball on the ground. Jason Kidd would be able to get him the ball in places on the court that allow him to focus on being a pure shooter, his true strength. San Antonio is simply holding serve for the playoffs, knowing that what has won them 4 championships is likely as good as anything else out there, so why mess with it?
All of this shapes up to make an NCAA tournament style Western Conference playoffs. 1 can beat 8, with any variation in between. As always, it will come down to matchups. If I was a betting man (and I am) I would take the bottom 4-10 teams and bet them to win the West knowing one of them will likely hit with great odds.
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